* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * TEST CP842008 08/20/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 24 25 24 23 23 27 31 34 38 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 24 25 24 23 23 27 31 34 38 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 20 19 18 17 17 SHEAR (KTS) 1 3 7 11 14 21 24 19 26 27 25 21 15 SHEAR DIR 282 221 218 209 203 221 225 218 212 206 197 198 219 SST (C) 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.7 26.2 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 115 114 114 114 114 114 115 114 116 118 121 126 131 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -54.8 -54.9 -54.8 -54.9 -54.5 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 23 25 21 21 20 17 20 21 25 26 29 28 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 0 7 20 17 22 20 28 46 49 29 11 -3 200 MB DIV -21 -12 -3 -3 -18 -11 -15 -3 6 -4 11 -3 -22 LAND (KM) 1081 1008 937 880 823 702 585 475 383 258 236 366 431 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.4 16.4 16.7 17.1 17.8 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 145.5 146.2 146.9 147.5 148.0 149.2 150.4 151.7 153.1 154.8 156.8 159.1 161.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 6 5 5 6 6 6 8 9 11 11 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 3.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 1. -2. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 9. 6. 5. 4. 5. 5. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. 2. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 7. 11. 14. 18. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP842008 TEST 08/20/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP842008 TEST 08/20/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY