* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FAY AL062008 08/20/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 54 53 51 50 46 44 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 39 35 30 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 47 38 34 29 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 6 10 12 4 4 9 13 20 18 12 7 13 17 SHEAR DIR 262 251 226 225 192 255 263 302 273 278 245 220 228 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 136 135 135 140 142 138 138 138 135 132 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 113 113 112 113 117 117 113 113 115 113 109 103 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 -51.2 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 7 9 7 8 7 8 7 8 6 7 700-500 MB RH 55 56 52 59 63 60 63 55 55 51 56 57 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 20 20 21 20 20 19 19 18 19 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -12 -40 -43 -25 -53 -23 -36 -12 -18 -6 -15 20 200 MB DIV 28 52 29 -4 5 5 50 -20 16 0 44 14 34 LAND (KM) 12 9 2 -24 -51 -50 16 -20 -67 -62 -58 -100 -186 LAT (DEG N) 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.8 29.9 30.2 30.6 30.8 31.0 31.5 32.3 LONG(DEG W) 80.6 80.8 81.0 81.4 81.7 82.9 84.1 84.5 84.7 85.6 87.5 88.5 88.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 4 5 4 2 3 6 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 4 2 0 9999 9999 9999 2 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 10. 9. 9. 8. 4. 1. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 9. 8. 6. 5. 1. -1. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062008 FAY 08/20/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062008 FAY 08/20/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY