* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 08/20/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 48 57 67 71 76 81 84 87 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 48 57 67 71 76 81 84 77 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 53 63 72 79 84 89 SHEAR (KTS) 5 8 3 3 7 2 3 6 12 7 13 10 10 SHEAR DIR 212 213 272 26 80 246 33 1 73 76 102 180 192 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 137 139 140 143 143 143 146 147 148 150 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 134 135 138 140 144 145 144 147 146 146 146 145 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 700-500 MB RH 60 58 61 57 54 55 51 54 50 50 49 47 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 66 73 74 61 33 18 30 16 12 10 7 -9 200 MB DIV 35 34 26 7 12 26 -7 6 1 -2 8 0 -9 LAND (KM) 1270 1207 1146 1081 1027 933 872 636 544 358 122 88 -6 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.4 14.1 14.8 15.6 16.2 16.9 17.3 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 43.5 44.6 45.6 46.8 48.0 50.6 53.7 56.8 60.0 63.1 66.0 68.7 71.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 11 12 12 14 15 15 16 15 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 24 28 39 43 46 59 59 66 61 72 76 86 84 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 13. 13. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 21. 31. 42. 47. 53. 58. 61. 65. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 14. 23. 32. 42. 46. 51. 56. 59. 62. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 08/20/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 08/20/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY