* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FAY AL062008 08/21/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 58 59 62 64 62 59 56 49 44 39 V (KT) LAND 50 44 39 34 31 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 50 46 39 34 31 29 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 10 5 6 6 5 10 11 9 19 21 31 29 31 SHEAR DIR 250 249 237 205 223 240 274 274 287 266 270 261 262 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.3 27.1 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 137 137 140 144 140 136 133 130 124 121 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 114 114 114 117 121 117 114 110 108 102 98 94 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -52.3 -52.7 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 7 8 7 8 6 8 5 8 5 700-500 MB RH 51 55 57 57 55 59 54 56 59 67 64 66 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 20 20 22 20 20 20 17 16 16 15 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -32 -28 -20 -21 -2 -22 -6 -6 -1 -6 22 -9 200 MB DIV 32 19 29 30 -15 32 33 11 -5 22 1 21 -6 LAND (KM) 30 -8 -47 -81 -50 1 -44 -22 -79 -117 -200 -224 -234 LAT (DEG N) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.9 30.3 30.7 31.2 31.7 32.2 32.4 32.5 LONG(DEG W) 80.7 81.2 81.6 82.1 82.6 83.8 85.1 86.3 87.4 88.4 89.3 89.8 89.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 0 HEAT CONTENT 4 0 9999 9999 9999 1 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 12. 11. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 13. 11. 9. 2. -3. -9. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 9. 12. 14. 12. 9. 6. -1. -6. -11. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062008 FAY 08/21/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062008 FAY 08/21/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED