* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 08/21/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 45 55 65 72 79 83 88 89 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 45 55 65 72 79 83 88 89 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 53 63 73 81 88 92 SHEAR (KTS) 2 3 9 7 2 6 2 8 6 8 10 4 13 SHEAR DIR 190 85 99 144 155 86 335 70 128 124 220 232 251 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 140 140 144 144 143 145 147 149 150 150 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 136 139 140 145 146 146 146 148 148 147 145 150 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 63 59 55 53 58 52 54 52 51 52 51 49 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 74 58 38 30 23 26 20 14 3 0 -13 -20 200 MB DIV 21 2 2 24 28 3 5 20 9 6 0 1 -26 LAND (KM) 1100 1046 992 934 890 864 648 481 464 204 147 40 19 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.6 12.7 13.4 14.0 14.8 15.5 16.2 16.8 17.5 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 45.5 46.5 47.5 48.8 50.0 52.9 56.0 59.3 62.4 65.5 68.4 71.0 73.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 12 13 15 16 16 15 15 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 42 45 46 49 54 63 68 62 73 77 89 89 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 15. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 31. 41. 48. 55. 59. 64. 66. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 30. 40. 47. 54. 58. 64. 64. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 08/21/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 08/21/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED