* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FAY AL062008 08/21/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 55 56 59 58 57 55 54 48 43 39 V (KT) LAND 50 45 40 35 31 33 28 31 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 40 35 31 32 29 31 28 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 10 5 4 10 9 12 7 15 20 19 19 19 19 SHEAR DIR 280 295 217 242 242 259 305 278 280 259 281 257 269 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 137 137 141 143 140 138 135 136 133 133 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 111 114 115 118 120 116 115 112 110 106 106 106 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -51.4 -51.8 -51.4 -52.1 -51.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 7 6 8 6 9 5 9 4 8 4 700-500 MB RH 54 57 55 53 58 53 57 55 60 60 60 57 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 23 21 19 20 20 17 17 18 19 16 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -28 -20 -34 -17 -11 -14 -6 -17 -1 6 9 -5 200 MB DIV 38 51 56 -17 -30 55 2 31 1 32 -22 5 23 LAND (KM) 33 2 -29 -81 -58 2 -47 4 -31 -30 -44 -44 -44 LAT (DEG N) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.6 30.0 30.2 30.4 30.7 30.8 30.9 30.9 30.9 LONG(DEG W) 80.7 81.1 81.4 82.0 82.6 84.0 85.0 86.2 87.5 88.3 88.4 88.4 88.4 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 5 6 5 5 6 4 2 0 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 3 0 9999 9999 9999 1 9999 4 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 11. 11. 10. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -4. -4. -3. -5. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 5. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 1. -4. -9. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. -2. -7. -11. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062008 FAY 08/21/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.5 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062008 FAY 08/21/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY