* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 08/21/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 36 45 54 64 71 78 85 90 91 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 36 45 54 64 71 78 85 61 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 52 62 71 82 62 41 SHEAR (KTS) 2 7 8 3 3 3 9 6 4 7 2 6 10 SHEAR DIR 142 122 177 191 1 238 358 92 30 162 315 204 300 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 141 143 145 144 143 146 147 150 149 150 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 137 140 143 146 146 145 146 145 146 143 142 145 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 700-500 MB RH 63 56 55 58 58 52 55 49 53 49 52 44 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 66 49 34 33 22 29 13 22 2 -6 -29 -39 200 MB DIV 3 -2 16 30 13 0 19 -3 -3 -8 11 -19 -13 LAND (KM) 993 949 917 882 852 785 552 524 310 77 15 -47 0 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.7 14.5 15.5 16.4 17.3 18.0 18.8 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 47.2 48.2 49.2 50.4 51.6 54.4 57.6 60.6 63.5 66.2 68.8 70.8 72.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 11 12 13 15 16 15 14 13 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 46 48 50 58 65 60 67 62 72 79 79 9999 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 20. 30. 40. 47. 53. 60. 65. 68. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 8. 11. 20. 29. 39. 46. 53. 60. 65. 66. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 08/21/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 08/21/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY