* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FAY AL062008 08/21/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 55 56 57 59 56 55 52 49 43 38 V (KT) LAND 50 39 34 31 30 34 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 50 40 35 31 30 36 37 34 30 28 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 5 5 9 8 8 16 12 17 14 14 13 24 22 SHEAR DIR 246 233 248 242 211 276 251 282 271 270 236 243 244 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 137 140 143 144 139 136 134 132 131 129 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 113 115 117 120 122 117 113 111 107 106 105 101 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.3 -51.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.9 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 6 8 7 8 6 8 4 7 4 9 700-500 MB RH 59 60 53 59 57 53 56 54 61 59 62 56 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 21 20 22 20 19 20 17 18 17 16 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -19 -31 -12 1 -15 2 -15 -11 -9 14 -18 -1 200 MB DIV 47 50 0 -1 38 -14 31 -31 41 17 18 -6 13 LAND (KM) 1 -43 -87 -47 -7 5 33 -19 -67 -122 -117 -134 -211 LAT (DEG N) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.8 30.1 30.6 31.2 31.5 31.4 31.6 32.3 LONG(DEG W) 81.1 81.6 82.1 82.7 83.3 84.7 86.2 87.4 88.4 89.1 89.7 89.9 89.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 5 6 7 6 5 5 3 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 9999 9999 9999 1 2 7 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. -3. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 6. 7. 5. 2. -5. -9. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 6. 5. 2. -1. -7. -12. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062008 FAY 08/21/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.5 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062008 FAY 08/21/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY