* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 08/21/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 37 46 57 67 76 82 86 89 92 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 37 46 57 67 76 71 56 66 68 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 38 45 55 67 77 56 69 77 SHEAR (KTS) 5 8 5 4 2 7 4 5 4 8 7 10 5 SHEAR DIR 130 209 263 320 85 304 71 268 105 246 262 261 257 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 145 145 144 143 146 147 150 151 150 151 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 143 146 147 145 145 148 146 147 144 139 137 137 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 13 700-500 MB RH 56 53 55 53 54 53 49 51 50 51 49 53 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 80 65 51 45 39 35 26 26 19 6 -28 -36 -55 200 MB DIV 0 12 16 -2 -23 13 18 0 14 -5 2 -11 9 LAND (KM) 897 865 836 837 827 590 520 337 55 -5 -6 80 144 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.5 12.7 13.1 13.5 14.3 15.4 16.4 17.5 18.6 19.7 20.5 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 48.8 50.0 51.2 52.6 53.9 56.9 60.1 63.2 66.0 68.5 70.5 71.9 73.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 13 14 14 16 16 15 14 12 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 45 54 63 65 60 66 65 73 80 46 0 78 76 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 15. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 21. 32. 42. 51. 58. 63. 66. 69. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 12. 21. 32. 42. 51. 57. 61. 64. 67. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 08/21/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 08/21/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY