* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FAY AL062008 08/22/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 57 58 60 61 59 56 51 48 41 38 V (KT) LAND 50 42 36 32 31 31 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 50 42 36 32 30 32 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 3 6 5 6 9 9 13 13 9 15 18 24 25 SHEAR DIR 237 266 252 267 280 276 260 301 263 275 249 248 242 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 27.7 27.6 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 137 142 144 141 136 135 135 137 129 127 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 113 115 119 122 120 114 111 110 112 105 102 102 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -51.6 -51.2 -52.0 -51.1 -51.7 -51.3 -52.0 -52.3 -53.0 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 8 8 6 9 5 9 4 10 4 12 700-500 MB RH 59 56 60 61 57 63 59 64 59 60 54 53 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 20 22 22 20 20 20 20 17 15 13 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -15 1 10 3 0 10 0 10 9 7 -19 -28 200 MB DIV 57 -6 -6 34 60 -13 55 8 31 2 14 0 -12 LAND (KM) -10 -54 -80 -40 -1 -25 -14 -38 -36 -77 -134 -155 -169 LAT (DEG N) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 30.0 30.6 30.8 30.9 31.1 31.6 31.8 31.9 LONG(DEG W) 81.2 81.7 82.2 82.9 83.5 85.2 86.7 87.6 88.3 89.0 89.9 90.1 89.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 6 7 7 6 4 3 4 3 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 9999 9999 9999 2 9999 1 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. 11. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 9. 8. 5. 1. -6. -10. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 9. 6. 1. -2. -9. -12. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062008 FAY 08/22/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062008 FAY 08/22/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY