* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 08/22/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 46 57 69 77 83 88 91 92 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 46 57 69 77 70 81 84 85 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 38 46 56 67 80 97 98 98 SHEAR (KTS) 5 3 3 4 3 6 5 4 9 7 6 7 5 SHEAR DIR 204 235 31 83 217 351 247 4 199 274 246 307 271 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 145 144 144 144 146 148 150 150 150 150 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 146 145 144 145 146 146 146 145 142 138 136 136 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 57 58 55 54 53 56 54 54 54 56 54 57 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 59 48 43 35 34 35 29 31 21 -11 -29 -48 200 MB DIV 20 16 10 8 10 23 10 19 4 18 -26 0 -10 LAND (KM) 835 814 814 815 707 520 544 232 16 -2 27 122 166 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.6 15.7 16.8 17.8 18.9 20.0 20.9 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 50.1 51.4 52.6 53.9 55.2 58.2 61.2 64.1 66.6 68.9 70.5 71.8 73.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 15 15 14 13 11 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 55 63 65 61 65 69 71 75 82 14 0 77 74 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 22. 33. 44. 51. 58. 63. 67. 70. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 21. 32. 44. 52. 58. 63. 66. 67. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 08/22/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 08/22/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY