* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL952008 08/22/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 39 47 53 57 60 63 67 67 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 39 47 53 57 60 63 67 67 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 23 26 29 32 34 36 39 43 49 SHEAR (KTS) 12 11 10 17 12 14 15 19 17 16 8 10 8 SHEAR DIR 95 108 74 100 104 48 42 13 15 18 348 335 280 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 139 136 133 127 128 132 132 134 138 141 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 141 139 134 131 123 124 128 128 129 132 135 137 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -53.4 -53.5 -54.1 -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 70 67 70 70 70 69 64 60 62 59 58 59 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 60 65 52 40 28 2 -17 -30 -40 -41 -34 -23 200 MB DIV 60 71 90 45 33 44 40 9 -6 -2 -18 -1 -13 LAND (KM) 1606 1646 1668 1611 1563 1473 1401 1317 1257 1148 983 818 676 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.7 12.3 12.9 13.4 14.3 15.1 15.7 16.2 16.6 16.9 16.8 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 36.4 37.5 38.5 39.6 40.6 42.8 44.9 47.3 49.7 52.2 54.4 56.6 58.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 11 11 12 12 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 20 20 18 19 18 29 46 49 63 60 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 22. 27. 31. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 27. 33. 37. 40. 43. 47. 50. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 27. 33. 37. 40. 43. 47. 47. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952008 INVEST 08/22/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952008 INVEST 08/22/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY