* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * FAY AL062008 08/22/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 48 49 52 53 57 53 52 47 43 37 V (KT) LAND 45 37 34 39 39 38 33 29 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 37 33 37 39 38 33 29 28 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 9 5 6 12 12 14 17 14 24 19 32 27 34 SHEAR DIR 283 287 257 264 282 263 280 241 266 267 260 242 251 SST (C) 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 135 140 144 144 142 138 136 135 134 131 132 131 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 117 121 122 120 116 113 110 109 105 106 106 104 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -51.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -53.2 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 8 7 8 6 8 5 8 5 10 7 700-500 MB RH 56 59 59 59 57 60 57 60 58 54 47 46 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 22 22 22 20 21 20 22 17 16 13 11 7 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -17 -2 4 -14 8 1 21 19 42 21 13 -52 200 MB DIV 15 0 26 59 3 28 10 54 6 44 5 -9 0 LAND (KM) -70 -58 -14 21 1 14 -30 -43 -88 -100 -100 -114 -158 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.3 30.7 31.0 31.2 31.3 31.3 31.4 31.8 LONG(DEG W) 81.9 82.5 83.1 83.9 84.6 86.2 87.4 88.3 88.8 89.1 89.1 89.4 89.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 7 7 6 5 3 2 0 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 1 3 1 5 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 12. 8. 7. 2. -2. -8. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 12. 8. 7. 2. -2. -8. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062008 FAY 08/22/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :2501.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062008 FAY 08/22/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED