* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL952008 08/22/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 29 33 41 49 55 61 67 70 72 72 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 29 33 41 49 55 61 67 70 72 72 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 28 32 36 39 44 50 56 63 SHEAR (KTS) 11 8 13 8 4 13 14 17 11 7 10 11 13 SHEAR DIR 107 57 124 131 53 40 23 23 10 2 324 346 295 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 131 128 127 128 129 130 131 134 138 140 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 133 127 125 124 123 122 124 123 125 128 130 132 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 65 63 64 65 65 65 65 63 63 66 61 62 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 82 65 53 32 21 5 -11 -15 -23 -18 -14 -2 200 MB DIV 51 74 40 33 39 39 14 7 14 35 20 2 -1 LAND (KM) 1649 1597 1554 1506 1466 1416 1382 1351 1265 1151 1047 938 750 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.3 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.7 16.4 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.3 18.6 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 39.0 40.1 41.1 42.2 43.3 45.5 47.4 49.4 51.5 53.3 55.1 56.8 58.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 11 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 21 18 18 18 18 20 29 38 43 49 51 54 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 425 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 21. 26. 29. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 21. 29. 35. 41. 47. 50. 52. 54. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 9. 13. 21. 29. 35. 41. 47. 50. 52. 52. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952008 INVEST 08/22/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952008 INVEST 08/22/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY