* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 08/22/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 46 55 63 71 79 86 89 90 87 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 46 55 63 71 79 86 89 90 73 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 40 44 53 62 70 79 87 95 99 84 SHEAR (KTS) 3 3 3 2 6 8 12 5 7 1 10 5 15 SHEAR DIR 323 99 149 27 84 94 39 50 27 170 322 354 10 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 147 148 146 146 145 145 148 148 147 148 150 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 163 149 150 148 148 146 145 146 144 141 142 142 144 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 9 9 10 9 12 10 12 11 13 12 700-500 MB RH 67 64 62 66 64 68 64 64 67 61 63 60 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 47 40 34 33 37 26 29 28 14 6 -12 -11 200 MB DIV 28 16 30 37 19 12 7 10 20 9 -4 -12 -10 LAND (KM) 546 494 423 305 218 266 368 350 271 133 100 47 -6 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.3 11.6 12.0 12.3 13.1 13.9 14.8 15.7 16.5 17.1 17.6 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 55.0 56.1 57.2 58.5 59.7 62.3 64.9 67.4 69.8 71.9 73.9 75.8 77.7 STM SPEED (KT) 18 11 12 13 13 13 13 12 12 10 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 64 64 73 81 78 69 67 66 79 82 23 12 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 26. 34. 42. 49. 55. 58. 60. 60. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 12. 16. 25. 33. 41. 49. 56. 59. 60. 57. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 08/22/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 72.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 08/22/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY