* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ISELLE EP102008 08/22/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 32 34 34 38 38 39 41 44 45 46 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 32 34 34 38 38 39 41 44 45 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 27 27 27 26 25 23 23 22 22 21 21 SHEAR (KTS) 32 35 37 31 33 28 21 21 15 13 11 12 7 SHEAR DIR 81 76 81 85 74 73 90 93 88 87 88 100 168 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.2 27.1 26.7 26.1 25.4 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 143 143 142 141 138 135 134 130 124 116 116 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -52.7 -53.1 -53.7 -52.6 -53.3 -52.9 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 58 60 61 63 66 64 67 64 64 60 58 54 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 10 10 9 10 10 9 8 7 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 27 27 25 51 58 62 76 70 57 37 41 32 42 200 MB DIV 75 75 48 77 62 23 39 31 34 44 25 -1 -9 LAND (KM) 1870 1901 1932 1976 2021 2120 2226 2306 2388 2210 2022 1848 1712 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 125.3 125.8 126.2 126.8 127.3 128.5 130.0 131.5 133.0 134.6 136.3 137.9 139.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 5 5 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 36.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -7. -6. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 11. 12. 16. 17. 17. 18. 19. 21. 22. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 7. 9. 9. 13. 13. 14. 16. 19. 20. 21. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP102008 ISELLE 08/22/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 37.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102008 ISELLE 08/22/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY