* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP972008 08/22/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 34 37 44 50 53 52 50 48 48 46 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 34 37 44 50 53 52 50 48 48 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 33 34 35 34 33 32 SHEAR (KTS) 26 23 24 21 14 18 10 12 9 9 3 7 3 SHEAR DIR 77 85 84 89 78 82 70 104 94 133 83 116 95 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.4 27.7 26.8 25.9 25.3 24.6 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 153 154 154 153 148 140 130 120 113 105 103 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 10 9 10 7 6 4 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 82 79 77 78 77 73 69 64 63 59 54 51 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 32 40 42 29 27 11 22 9 3 -7 -15 -22 200 MB DIV 28 33 30 24 -4 28 -3 7 -18 -5 -12 -27 -7 LAND (KM) 305 279 265 268 307 356 303 362 434 481 544 580 611 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.3 17.1 17.8 18.4 19.7 20.5 21.2 21.4 21.8 21.9 22.3 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 104.0 105.0 105.9 106.9 107.8 109.7 111.4 113.0 114.4 115.7 116.6 117.3 117.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 11 10 8 7 7 5 4 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 21. 25. 26. 26. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 13. 19. 23. 24. 23. 22. 20. 19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 9. 12. 19. 25. 28. 27. 25. 23. 23. 21. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP972008 INVEST 08/22/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972008 INVEST 08/22/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED