* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * FAY AL062008 08/22/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 42 44 48 49 49 49 46 44 40 38 V (KT) LAND 40 36 40 33 31 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 40 35 38 33 31 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 9 12 15 11 16 16 15 21 14 31 25 30 20 SHEAR DIR 246 263 280 264 231 250 198 242 256 266 261 257 252 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.1 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 142 141 139 137 137 134 133 132 126 123 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 120 120 118 117 115 113 109 107 107 103 101 99 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -51.6 -51.2 -50.9 -51.4 -52.2 -52.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 6 9 7 9 6 9 4 8 6 10 700-500 MB RH 60 56 53 59 57 51 56 55 53 50 50 46 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 23 22 22 23 24 22 19 17 14 14 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR -2 5 -12 5 19 15 28 23 39 10 17 -39 -5 200 MB DIV 9 41 17 17 41 13 59 20 27 17 17 9 20 LAND (KM) -50 -11 9 -41 -9 -18 -55 -80 -100 -114 -166 -227 -258 LAT (DEG N) 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.6 30.9 31.1 31.2 31.4 31.9 32.4 33.0 LONG(DEG W) 82.9 83.6 84.3 85.0 85.7 87.3 88.6 89.3 89.6 89.8 90.1 89.6 88.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 7 7 4 2 1 2 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 9999 1 0 9999 3 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 9. 9. 9. 6. 4. 0. -2. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 9. 9. 9. 6. 4. 0. -2. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062008 FAY 08/22/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :2500.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062008 FAY 08/22/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY