* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 08/22/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 46 55 65 76 84 90 91 92 90 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 46 55 65 76 84 90 91 80 82 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 43 52 62 73 84 93 98 88 91 SHEAR (KTS) 4 6 1 5 6 5 8 3 4 7 13 13 12 SHEAR DIR 181 196 3 36 102 38 60 24 38 335 10 359 22 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 148 149 147 144 147 148 146 147 150 153 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 151 152 153 150 144 146 146 141 141 141 145 146 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 9 9 11 9 11 10 12 11 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 63 62 65 66 67 67 66 67 65 66 65 66 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 56 51 52 50 48 43 57 41 25 2 3 -5 200 MB DIV 21 35 39 27 29 35 39 32 22 -1 8 9 10 LAND (KM) 482 408 276 176 193 300 385 337 178 137 91 -18 95 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.4 11.6 12.1 12.5 13.4 14.3 15.1 16.0 16.8 17.5 17.9 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 56.0 57.3 58.6 60.0 61.4 64.1 66.7 69.2 71.5 73.5 75.4 77.2 79.2 STM SPEED (KT) 18 13 14 14 14 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 65 74 79 81 74 56 61 66 81 94 6 37 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 14. 15. 14. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 26. 35. 46. 54. 59. 61. 62. 62. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 12. 16. 25. 35. 46. 54. 60. 61. 62. 60. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 08/22/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 74.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 08/22/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY