* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL952008 08/22/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 38 44 51 59 65 70 75 78 78 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 38 44 51 59 65 70 75 78 78 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 33 36 41 46 53 61 70 78 86 90 SHEAR (KTS) 4 2 7 15 16 7 8 6 6 8 7 7 8 SHEAR DIR 211 358 329 357 32 28 4 309 342 298 333 323 28 SST (C) 26.5 26.6 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 122 122 125 126 127 128 133 138 140 141 142 144 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 118 120 121 121 121 125 127 128 127 128 129 130 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 56 56 55 58 58 53 54 56 59 57 60 62 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 85 66 52 45 33 14 4 0 -4 -1 -10 -6 -13 200 MB DIV 22 -4 7 25 14 10 15 22 33 12 19 -9 2 LAND (KM) 1858 1777 1713 1674 1639 1475 1320 1092 925 790 672 578 501 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.2 18.5 18.9 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.3 20.9 21.2 21.6 21.8 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 41.6 43.3 44.9 46.4 47.9 50.7 53.2 55.5 57.3 58.8 60.3 61.6 63.1 STM SPEED (KT) 19 16 15 15 14 13 11 10 8 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 7 11 14 17 19 23 39 46 54 56 50 50 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 23. 26. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 19. 26. 34. 41. 46. 50. 53. 56. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 13. 19. 26. 34. 40. 45. 50. 53. 53. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952008 INVEST 08/22/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952008 INVEST 08/22/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY