* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP972008 08/22/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 44 49 51 51 48 45 44 42 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 44 49 51 51 48 45 44 42 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 31 33 34 35 34 33 31 SHEAR (KTS) 23 26 21 16 17 8 14 12 10 12 16 16 12 SHEAR DIR 74 76 87 77 70 95 99 96 91 78 90 105 99 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.5 27.9 27.2 26.7 26.2 25.8 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 155 156 156 155 148 141 133 128 122 118 113 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 9 8 7 5 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 83 80 81 78 75 71 67 64 61 57 54 49 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 30 28 14 13 19 13 15 3 -7 -7 -26 -34 200 MB DIV 35 38 14 -22 -9 16 9 11 -16 1 -10 -13 0 LAND (KM) 291 262 238 266 303 244 212 279 358 405 469 496 529 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 17.1 18.0 18.7 19.4 20.7 21.5 21.7 21.8 21.7 21.6 21.8 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 105.0 105.9 106.7 107.6 108.4 109.9 111.4 112.4 113.6 114.4 115.3 115.9 116.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 9 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 22. 26. 28. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 13. 19. 22. 23. 21. 19. 16. 15. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 12. 19. 24. 26. 26. 23. 20. 19. 17. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP972008 INVEST 08/22/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972008 INVEST 08/22/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY