* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FAY AL062008 08/23/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 47 50 51 53 52 52 49 46 42 38 V (KT) LAND 40 42 35 42 45 38 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 35 39 41 37 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 12 9 8 16 14 12 16 11 20 25 27 21 24 SHEAR DIR 251 277 223 224 224 196 194 276 241 256 254 265 281 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.3 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.2 27.4 27.1 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 141 140 137 139 135 135 135 136 126 121 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 122 120 119 116 117 111 108 107 112 104 98 100 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -51.3 -51.7 -51.2 -52.3 -52.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 8 9 6 9 5 11 4 11 5 13 700-500 MB RH 55 54 59 58 59 59 57 54 48 44 35 39 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 21 21 22 23 21 19 17 16 15 14 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 7 -17 -4 6 15 7 19 32 40 22 8 -57 -90 200 MB DIV 35 -1 17 40 42 1 41 1 6 8 -15 -23 -31 LAND (KM) 17 6 -7 38 26 -22 -78 -76 -48 -76 -198 -244 -223 LAT (DEG N) 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.6 31.1 31.0 30.8 31.0 31.8 32.0 31.8 LONG(DEG W) 83.8 84.6 85.4 86.3 87.2 88.7 90.0 90.5 90.3 90.5 91.4 91.9 92.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 7 7 4 1 0 4 4 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 3 1 2 8 3 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 9. 7. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 14. 11. 9. 4. 0. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 13. 12. 12. 9. 6. 2. -2. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062008 FAY 08/23/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062008 FAY 08/23/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY