* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 08/23/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 41 52 62 67 71 75 78 81 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 41 52 62 67 56 56 58 53 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 25 26 29 33 39 46 43 45 51 50 SHEAR (KTS) 3 7 10 9 6 8 4 9 8 14 6 14 4 SHEAR DIR 120 50 35 49 74 31 209 268 251 351 336 14 128 SST (C) 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 149 147 147 147 145 148 149 148 150 154 157 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 155 152 152 150 146 146 144 141 141 145 148 147 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.7 -53.5 -54.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 11 9 11 10 12 11 12 11 12 700-500 MB RH 65 63 64 68 63 67 59 63 60 60 59 62 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 40 37 45 42 42 30 19 9 0 -1 4 14 200 MB DIV 26 32 17 12 18 36 26 6 -8 -11 1 3 5 LAND (KM) 568 504 397 296 277 411 271 153 95 -23 26 80 -8 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.4 11.8 12.5 13.2 14.4 15.6 16.7 17.5 18.2 18.6 18.6 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 54.5 56.0 57.5 58.9 60.3 62.9 65.4 67.7 69.6 71.6 73.3 75.2 77.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 15 15 15 14 13 11 10 9 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 66 62 74 81 73 63 78 82 85 9999 2 17 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 10. 11. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 14. 25. 35. 42. 46. 51. 54. 59. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 8. 16. 27. 37. 42. 46. 50. 53. 56. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 08/23/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 71.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 08/23/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY