* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP972008 08/23/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 39 47 52 54 54 52 49 48 46 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 39 47 52 54 54 52 49 48 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 34 35 35 35 34 32 SHEAR (KTS) 23 21 13 16 14 12 14 10 10 9 11 11 16 SHEAR DIR 71 80 77 59 74 69 77 78 88 96 124 107 138 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.4 27.7 26.8 26.3 25.8 25.9 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 157 158 158 154 146 139 129 123 117 119 120 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.6 -52.1 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 9 10 7 8 5 5 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 82 82 81 79 76 71 67 68 67 63 57 55 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 37 23 20 24 13 32 4 16 -11 -10 -34 -39 200 MB DIV 46 26 3 18 24 7 19 -16 5 2 10 5 10 LAND (KM) 260 234 249 277 285 158 156 215 230 251 232 194 127 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 18.0 18.9 19.7 20.5 21.5 22.3 22.5 22.9 23.0 23.4 23.6 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 105.8 106.7 107.5 108.3 109.0 110.3 111.4 112.3 113.2 113.8 114.0 113.7 113.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 9 7 5 4 4 2 1 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 22. 26. 27. 27. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 16. 21. 25. 26. 25. 22. 21. 19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 14. 22. 27. 29. 29. 27. 24. 23. 21. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP972008 INVEST 08/23/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972008 INVEST 08/23/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY