* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FAY AL062008 08/23/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 51 54 56 59 58 60 58 55 48 45 38 V (KT) LAND 45 43 46 49 51 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 38 45 47 49 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 11 8 11 13 10 13 12 8 26 24 26 25 28 SHEAR DIR 261 237 208 218 231 161 273 268 257 224 254 240 263 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.2 26.7 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 140 138 138 139 141 140 138 133 123 119 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 119 118 117 117 116 116 113 112 109 101 99 96 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.0 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 -52.4 -52.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 9 9 7 10 8 10 6 9 7 12 7 700-500 MB RH 55 58 56 55 53 55 55 53 46 42 35 36 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 22 23 25 25 23 19 17 17 15 11 11 7 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -6 9 12 4 21 4 21 -1 13 -43 -37 -107 200 MB DIV -3 22 47 32 -14 52 8 28 10 7 -9 -11 -25 LAND (KM) 5 5 57 38 11 -36 -43 -75 -101 -144 -233 -269 -333 LAT (DEG N) 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.6 30.4 30.4 30.7 31.2 31.9 32.6 33.4 LONG(DEG W) 84.7 85.5 86.3 87.1 87.8 89.5 90.7 91.1 91.2 91.3 91.9 91.3 89.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 3 2 2 3 3 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 2 6 10 6 1 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 10. 10. 8. 7. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -10. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 11. 14. 14. 16. 15. 12. 5. 2. -5. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 9. 11. 14. 13. 15. 13. 10. 3. 0. -7. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062008 FAY 08/23/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062008 FAY 08/23/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED