* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 08/23/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 32 41 51 61 68 74 79 81 83 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 32 41 51 61 68 74 79 81 83 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 24 26 29 34 40 48 56 65 71 76 SHEAR (KTS) 10 8 9 4 9 5 4 7 10 8 14 14 8 SHEAR DIR 23 28 38 41 39 92 306 299 313 345 341 32 346 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 147 147 145 145 146 149 148 150 151 152 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 154 151 150 146 144 143 143 140 141 142 144 143 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 11 10 10 11 11 12 11 12 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 66 64 67 69 67 65 65 64 65 61 62 61 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 37 42 45 45 38 31 17 14 6 16 12 30 200 MB DIV 38 8 0 10 23 44 17 -2 -6 10 0 14 -6 LAND (KM) 493 433 308 245 278 422 277 188 120 20 33 84 39 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.6 12.1 12.7 13.3 14.5 15.5 16.5 17.2 17.8 17.9 17.8 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 55.7 57.1 58.5 59.9 61.2 63.6 66.0 68.1 70.0 71.8 73.5 75.4 77.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 15 14 14 13 12 11 9 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 64 73 81 75 65 61 80 88 81 76 8 8 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 15. 26. 35. 42. 48. 53. 56. 60. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 2. 4. 7. 16. 26. 36. 43. 49. 54. 56. 58. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 08/23/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 71.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 08/23/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY