* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP972008 08/23/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 40 44 44 44 43 41 40 39 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 40 44 44 44 43 41 40 39 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 27 28 29 30 29 29 28 27 SHEAR (KTS) 21 21 18 22 17 15 15 14 9 9 9 8 6 SHEAR DIR 65 75 74 85 98 93 96 97 112 82 74 67 146 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.4 26.8 26.4 26.0 25.5 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 155 155 154 149 143 135 129 124 120 115 109 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 10 8 7 5 4 3 2 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 84 83 82 77 73 70 69 66 62 58 55 50 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 17 10 16 13 16 21 25 14 19 -1 -6 -31 200 MB DIV 21 4 12 23 27 7 26 8 21 0 -7 -7 -15 LAND (KM) 276 290 317 356 267 192 226 289 326 380 421 466 486 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.3 19.1 19.8 20.5 21.5 22.0 22.2 22.2 22.1 22.1 22.2 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 106.6 107.5 108.4 109.1 109.8 111.1 112.0 113.0 113.8 114.6 115.2 115.9 116.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 10 9 6 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 21. 24. 26. 26. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 16. 18. 18. 17. 15. 14. 13. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 10. 15. 19. 19. 19. 18. 16. 15. 14. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP972008 INVEST 08/23/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972008 INVEST 08/23/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY