* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FAY AL062008 08/23/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 44 46 48 49 52 49 46 42 40 36 V (KT) LAND 40 44 46 48 49 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 42 43 44 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 10 9 13 10 7 12 7 17 20 32 29 27 16 SHEAR DIR 279 215 211 222 164 190 307 222 246 235 238 234 249 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.3 27.8 26.7 26.2 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 138 138 138 140 140 139 137 132 119 113 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 117 116 116 116 117 114 112 112 109 99 93 93 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -51.4 -51.7 -52.0 -51.2 -51.8 -52.1 -52.8 -53.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 7 6 10 7 11 7 13 7 14 7 700-500 MB RH 57 54 54 52 56 54 55 53 50 41 43 39 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 23 23 23 23 20 18 17 15 13 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR -4 12 21 5 9 14 6 12 -5 -11 -38 -70 -103 200 MB DIV 13 48 30 -21 -4 65 20 31 9 -8 -5 -45 -31 LAND (KM) -14 33 41 19 0 -22 -43 -66 -72 -117 -256 -334 -335 LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.7 31.4 32.7 33.4 33.6 LONG(DEG W) 85.3 86.0 86.7 87.5 88.2 89.8 90.7 91.0 90.8 90.5 90.3 89.8 89.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 6 3 1 3 5 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 3 7 8 0 1 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 11. 9. 7. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 11. 9. 4. 2. -1. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 12. 9. 6. 2. 0. -4. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062008 FAY 08/23/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062008 FAY 08/23/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY