* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 08/23/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 45 55 65 71 77 78 81 83 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 45 55 65 71 77 78 81 83 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 41 49 58 65 72 77 81 SHEAR (KTS) 13 10 4 8 9 2 11 4 13 6 19 4 8 SHEAR DIR 27 45 21 27 35 228 326 304 6 340 16 65 360 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 147 147 145 146 148 149 148 149 150 149 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 152 151 149 146 145 144 142 139 141 141 142 141 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 9 11 10 12 11 12 11 12 10 700-500 MB RH 64 65 66 65 66 64 64 63 61 62 60 63 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 44 43 45 46 37 28 14 10 18 11 24 34 200 MB DIV 12 -3 3 21 24 34 26 -8 -11 16 -1 -2 1 LAND (KM) 443 326 242 261 344 367 224 150 47 47 70 55 155 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.9 12.5 13.2 13.8 14.9 15.9 16.8 17.4 17.7 17.6 17.3 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 56.8 58.2 59.6 60.9 62.2 64.7 67.1 69.1 71.0 72.6 74.5 76.5 78.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 15 14 14 13 12 10 8 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 72 79 75 53 71 75 82 96 71 83 6 47 86 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 10. 20. 30. 39. 45. 51. 54. 57. 60. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 20. 30. 40. 46. 52. 53. 56. 58. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 08/23/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 70.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 08/23/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY