* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL952008 08/23/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 44 53 62 67 71 77 82 85 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 44 53 62 67 71 77 82 85 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 51 58 63 69 77 87 SHEAR (KTS) 3 2 2 7 6 9 9 10 17 11 5 1 4 SHEAR DIR 335 358 271 278 289 280 266 245 232 258 26 101 354 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.7 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 128 130 134 140 142 141 142 144 148 153 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 122 122 123 126 130 129 126 125 128 133 139 142 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.1 -54.5 -54.1 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 10 11 10 11 10 11 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 54 52 52 54 55 54 56 57 59 56 56 57 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 25 12 6 12 12 11 3 6 5 0 10 0 200 MB DIV 22 11 3 6 8 6 54 9 37 -16 12 -15 8 LAND (KM) 1638 1592 1496 1409 1300 1058 874 772 691 596 509 470 448 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.5 19.9 20.2 20.4 21.0 21.6 22.1 22.5 22.4 22.5 22.7 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 47.7 49.2 50.7 52.1 53.5 56.0 58.1 59.5 60.8 62.0 63.6 65.4 67.4 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 14 13 13 11 8 7 6 6 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 19 21 21 31 38 48 49 43 45 50 45 49 71 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 27. 29. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 12. 11. 12. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 29. 38. 43. 47. 53. 58. 62. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 28. 37. 42. 46. 52. 57. 60. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952008 INVEST 08/23/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952008 INVEST 08/23/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY