* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP972008 08/23/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 41 47 49 51 50 49 47 45 42 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 41 47 49 51 50 49 47 45 42 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 36 39 40 41 42 41 40 38 35 SHEAR (KTS) 20 17 21 16 16 18 14 16 8 6 5 6 11 SHEAR DIR 75 79 85 99 82 83 95 113 81 57 22 12 323 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.6 28.0 27.3 26.8 26.1 25.5 24.7 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 156 155 155 149 142 134 129 122 116 107 100 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 -52.5 -51.8 -52.5 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 10 8 7 8 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 85 85 78 75 77 71 71 70 67 62 57 51 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 15 23 18 19 38 32 45 34 31 7 -9 -27 200 MB DIV 10 16 28 27 8 36 13 31 -9 -17 -15 -17 -8 LAND (KM) 289 301 340 282 211 158 215 266 302 331 377 420 453 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.9 19.8 20.4 21.0 21.9 22.2 22.4 22.4 22.6 22.8 23.3 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 107.3 108.1 108.9 109.5 110.1 111.1 112.0 112.9 113.7 114.5 115.3 116.1 116.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 10 8 8 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 15. 19. 22. 23. 22. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 10. 15. 18. 20. 20. 18. 16. 14. 11. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 11. 17. 19. 21. 20. 19. 17. 15. 12. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP972008 INVEST 08/23/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972008 INVEST 08/23/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED