* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FAY AL062008 08/23/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 42 43 44 47 47 46 43 42 40 40 V (KT) LAND 40 36 33 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 40 36 33 31 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 15 14 7 4 8 9 7 19 19 27 17 11 2 SHEAR DIR 222 231 228 161 170 263 260 250 227 242 228 256 184 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.5 26.9 26.1 25.8 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 137 136 136 135 132 129 127 121 113 108 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 115 115 114 113 112 108 104 103 100 94 88 89 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -52.2 -51.7 -51.6 -52.4 -52.5 -53.0 -53.7 -54.4 -54.5 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 7 6 10 6 9 6 10 7 11 7 12 700-500 MB RH 57 54 53 59 58 58 57 55 54 48 47 40 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 25 23 23 21 19 19 16 15 12 11 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 12 18 8 16 21 7 34 -10 0 -55 -10 -79 -23 200 MB DIV 26 46 8 10 35 1 41 16 25 -6 5 -10 33 LAND (KM) -19 -25 -52 -38 -77 -93 -125 -166 -178 -231 -355 -403 -383 LAT (DEG N) 30.5 30.7 30.9 31.0 31.1 31.2 31.3 31.4 31.7 32.4 33.6 34.1 34.0 LONG(DEG W) 85.9 86.7 87.5 88.2 88.9 89.8 90.9 91.4 91.2 90.8 90.0 89.5 89.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 1 3 5 5 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 3 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -9. -12. -12. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 8. 8. 8. 5. 4. 1. 2. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 6. 3. 2. 0. 0. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062008 FAY 08/23/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062008 FAY 08/23/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY