* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 08/23/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 41 47 55 63 70 75 80 81 83 84 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 41 47 55 63 70 75 80 81 83 84 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 49 56 65 74 82 88 92 95 SHEAR (KTS) 8 5 10 14 9 8 10 5 8 5 14 5 6 SHEAR DIR 63 82 56 77 87 45 66 75 70 27 65 54 72 SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 144 139 139 142 146 144 139 139 139 142 144 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 148 141 139 141 145 140 134 133 133 137 138 140 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 68 72 72 71 72 68 69 71 66 68 63 65 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 6 6 9 6 5 5 3 3 2 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 56 55 48 48 45 50 43 37 30 40 23 30 41 200 MB DIV 24 25 30 33 60 31 29 9 17 15 18 0 1 LAND (KM) 22 72 111 193 233 220 256 261 301 267 256 354 153 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.4 11.7 12.2 12.7 13.4 14.4 14.8 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.4 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 61.0 62.4 63.8 64.9 66.0 68.2 70.3 72.2 74.1 76.0 78.0 79.9 81.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 6 19 35 45 37 61 66 62 46 71 94 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 17. 25. 34. 41. 47. 52. 53. 55. 56. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 11. 17. 25. 33. 40. 45. 50. 51. 53. 54. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 08/23/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 08/23/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY