* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL952008 08/23/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 44 52 59 65 69 70 75 78 80 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 44 52 59 65 69 70 75 78 80 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 38 41 47 53 59 63 66 71 78 85 SHEAR (KTS) 6 5 7 8 9 12 14 21 13 11 10 10 6 SHEAR DIR 276 278 278 270 260 275 243 224 194 222 175 210 157 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 133 136 139 140 141 141 141 142 145 147 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 123 125 128 129 127 124 123 122 124 128 132 137 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 11 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 53 56 56 58 53 58 59 56 52 53 55 53 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 18 9 17 12 9 10 26 26 31 35 22 4 200 MB DIV 12 4 16 15 29 42 55 32 17 -3 10 -3 0 LAND (KM) 1532 1446 1362 1234 1111 940 854 806 766 700 642 573 560 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.0 20.4 20.8 21.1 21.8 22.6 22.9 23.1 22.9 23.0 23.1 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 50.0 51.5 52.9 54.2 55.5 57.5 58.9 59.7 60.4 61.1 62.1 63.5 65.3 STM SPEED (KT) 17 14 13 13 11 9 6 4 3 4 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 22 25 35 41 45 45 42 38 39 45 53 52 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 764 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 8. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 22. 29. 36. 40. 42. 47. 49. 52. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 14. 22. 29. 35. 39. 40. 45. 48. 50. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952008 INVEST 08/23/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952008 INVEST 08/23/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY