* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ELEVEN EP112008 08/23/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 41 45 51 52 48 40 30 25 24 25 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 41 45 51 52 48 40 31 24 26 25 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 36 38 39 38 33 28 23 27 24 SHEAR (KTS) 22 22 18 16 14 12 6 17 24 24 30 17 15 SHEAR DIR 72 82 93 88 81 103 210 258 271 277 290 304 344 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.1 25.2 23.0 22.1 22.2 24.8 28.2 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 155 154 154 146 116 91 80 82 109 145 140 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -53.1 -53.4 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 8 6 4 2 3 2 3 1 3 700-500 MB RH 82 78 75 74 72 68 65 59 59 53 45 40 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 4 3 5 850 MB ENV VOR 18 31 26 24 39 31 31 11 11 28 17 28 -7 200 MB DIV 24 31 13 10 11 23 -14 -16 1 3 -20 -15 -9 LAND (KM) 298 339 258 200 153 133 121 84 28 60 -33 13 -48 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.9 20.6 21.1 21.6 22.9 24.9 26.4 27.3 28.3 29.5 30.7 32.1 LONG(DEG W) 108.2 108.9 109.6 110.1 110.5 111.6 113.5 114.5 114.7 114.7 114.7 114.6 114.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 7 8 11 11 7 5 5 6 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 14. 14. 12. 10. 9. 11. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -10. -12. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 16. 18. 14. 8. -1. -6. -8. -6. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 11. 15. 21. 22. 18. 10. 0. -5. -6. -5. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP112008 ELEVEN 08/23/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112008 ELEVEN 08/23/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY