* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * FAY AL062008 08/24/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 28 27 29 30 33 34 37 37 38 38 39 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 16 5 4 7 2 7 15 13 22 20 26 6 12 SHEAR DIR 226 220 129 165 143 307 219 247 233 229 222 276 250 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.4 26.3 25.7 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 136 136 133 133 131 131 133 127 115 108 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 116 116 116 110 107 105 105 108 107 97 89 85 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.2 -52.7 -52.1 -51.4 -52.2 -52.5 -53.0 -53.2 -54.3 -54.5 -55.1 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 6 5 9 10 5 11 5 13 7 13 6 13 700-500 MB RH 58 55 60 60 57 61 56 55 50 49 43 37 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 22 22 20 20 17 16 13 13 11 10 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 18 5 10 20 13 8 5 -27 -26 -52 -42 -76 -29 200 MB DIV 36 13 11 44 42 14 38 -10 10 6 -34 -25 -10 LAND (KM) -36 -51 -87 -108 -115 -123 -123 -123 -130 -173 -331 -423 -475 LAT (DEG N) 30.8 31.1 31.3 31.3 31.3 31.1 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.9 33.4 34.4 34.9 LONG(DEG W) 86.7 87.7 88.6 89.7 90.7 91.1 91.0 91.0 91.1 90.6 89.5 89.1 89.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 5 1 0 0 2 6 7 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 14. 13. 12. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. -5. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -1. 0. 3. 4. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -2. -3. -1. 0. 3. 4. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062008 FAY 08/24/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :9999.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062008 FAY 08/24/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY