* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 08/24/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 40 48 57 65 70 74 77 80 82 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 40 48 57 65 70 74 77 80 82 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 30 35 41 49 58 67 74 79 83 SHEAR (KTS) 5 10 10 11 8 7 10 8 11 9 13 8 8 SHEAR DIR 63 59 73 96 146 20 142 85 124 86 131 94 125 SST (C) 28.4 28.1 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 139 138 140 143 141 137 137 139 142 143 146 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 142 139 141 144 140 133 132 134 136 136 140 139 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -52.8 -53.1 -54.0 -53.3 -53.9 -53.4 -53.8 -53.3 -53.8 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 11 10 8 10 9 10 10 11 9 11 700-500 MB RH 73 73 70 71 71 70 70 70 66 64 64 64 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 11 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 54 50 51 53 51 52 51 49 49 37 47 63 200 MB DIV 32 23 19 67 56 35 47 17 28 12 19 -6 4 LAND (KM) 44 83 170 179 183 144 179 333 323 298 352 193 21 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.5 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.4 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.0 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 62.4 63.8 65.1 66.3 67.5 69.9 71.9 74.0 75.9 77.9 79.6 81.4 83.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 29 42 46 51 55 50 45 63 91 26 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 21. 31. 40. 47. 53. 55. 58. 60. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 12. 15. 23. 32. 40. 45. 49. 52. 55. 57. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 08/24/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 08/24/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY