* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * JULIO EP112008 08/24/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 43 45 50 55 52 51 45 47 47 48 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 43 45 50 43 38 32 29 34 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 40 42 44 37 36 31 29 31 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 18 15 15 14 14 3 2 22 20 29 13 16 6 SHEAR DIR 72 78 68 75 74 107 242 281 285 292 301 297 65 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.1 27.6 27.2 26.7 28.3 30.4 29.8 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 157 155 144 139 134 129 145 168 162 128 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -51.7 -52.2 -51.7 -52.1 -52.2 -52.9 -53.4 -54.1 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 8 9 6 6 3 6 2 7 2 8 700-500 MB RH 80 78 76 75 72 72 68 62 57 56 56 47 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 2 3 2 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 35 29 26 38 41 20 22 15 9 15 17 25 10 200 MB DIV 24 16 5 10 25 3 5 7 4 -32 -28 -19 -28 LAND (KM) 285 281 202 123 69 40 -10 -21 -64 -2 3 -74 -173 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.6 21.2 21.8 22.4 23.9 25.3 26.6 27.6 28.6 29.7 30.9 32.2 LONG(DEG W) 108.4 108.9 109.3 109.9 110.4 111.4 112.0 112.6 113.2 113.2 112.7 112.2 111.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 6 6 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 20. 22. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 1. -4. -7. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -2. -4. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 15. 20. 18. 16. 11. 12. 12. 13. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 8. 10. 15. 20. 17. 16. 10. 12. 12. 13. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP112008 JULIO 08/24/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112008 JULIO 08/24/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY