* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 08/24/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 49 54 59 61 67 72 75 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 49 54 59 61 67 72 75 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 24 26 29 33 38 42 47 54 63 72 SHEAR (KTS) 8 12 7 3 5 11 11 15 8 7 2 6 5 SHEAR DIR 72 67 74 86 21 33 32 55 72 86 44 54 342 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 137 140 143 141 137 137 139 142 143 146 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 135 136 141 144 140 133 132 134 136 136 140 139 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -52.6 -53.2 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 11 10 9 10 9 11 10 11 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 73 70 71 71 69 69 71 62 67 62 63 63 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 12 10 9 8 7 5 6 3 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 51 48 53 52 44 48 48 31 47 26 33 24 34 200 MB DIV 28 21 63 50 44 60 37 20 10 27 3 -2 -13 LAND (KM) 44 86 170 179 183 144 179 333 323 298 352 193 21 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.5 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.4 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.0 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 63.3 64.2 65.1 66.3 67.5 69.9 71.9 74.0 75.9 77.9 79.6 81.4 83.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 11 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 2 16 29 42 46 51 55 50 45 63 91 26 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 23. 28. 35. 40. 45. 50. 53. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 24. 29. 34. 36. 42. 47. 50. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 08/24/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 08/24/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY