* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL952008 08/24/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 30 32 38 44 50 54 59 64 68 67 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 30 32 38 44 50 54 59 64 68 67 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 24 24 26 28 31 33 37 42 49 53 SHEAR (KTS) 15 12 13 14 17 14 22 17 11 9 22 19 29 SHEAR DIR 263 274 248 257 263 234 227 225 268 286 283 258 262 SST (C) 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 134 138 140 141 140 140 140 139 141 141 142 144 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 129 130 128 126 122 119 118 118 120 121 123 123 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 54 56 52 56 59 60 60 61 57 60 60 59 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 3 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -4 -14 0 -10 7 2 16 15 34 30 39 3 200 MB DIV 14 18 42 43 28 69 40 33 10 34 28 25 16 LAND (KM) 1331 1213 1101 1028 962 926 932 933 927 936 966 1051 1119 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.4 22.8 23.7 24.2 24.4 24.5 24.7 25.2 26.1 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 53.3 54.6 55.9 56.9 57.8 58.9 59.3 59.5 59.7 59.8 60.0 59.9 60.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 10 8 5 2 1 1 2 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 33 45 39 46 46 39 38 39 39 39 39 36 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 7. 14. 19. 25. 29. 35. 40. 44. 45. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 2. 5. 7. 13. 19. 25. 29. 34. 39. 43. 42. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952008 INVEST 08/24/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952008 INVEST 08/24/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY