* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * JULIO EP112008 08/24/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 39 44 46 48 44 44 44 46 49 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 32 30 28 28 27 31 30 29 28 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 37 32 30 28 28 27 30 30 31 27 SHEAR (KTS) 19 16 13 12 3 4 12 24 25 28 15 16 4 SHEAR DIR 69 69 65 87 106 291 266 280 291 297 309 314 261 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.0 27.9 28.1 29.1 30.3 30.0 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 157 155 151 142 141 143 154 166 163 137 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -53.2 -53.5 -54.1 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 6 6 4 5 3 5 2 5 2 700-500 MB RH 78 77 75 73 73 73 64 62 58 56 50 44 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 5 3 5 3 4 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 33 33 43 44 25 30 19 14 25 18 34 19 22 200 MB DIV 17 14 9 37 25 -7 32 9 4 -21 -6 -16 -3 LAND (KM) 226 137 48 0 -16 -20 -24 -44 -23 22 38 -3 -127 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.8 22.5 23.2 23.9 25.2 26.1 27.0 28.0 29.0 30.0 31.2 32.4 LONG(DEG W) 109.2 109.5 109.8 110.2 110.6 111.2 112.0 112.5 113.0 113.2 113.3 113.2 113.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 12 CX,CY: -5/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 25. 27. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. 0. -5. -8. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -2. -5. -3. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 15. 17. 13. 11. 9. 12. 15. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 11. 13. 9. 9. 9. 11. 14. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP112008 JULIO 08/24/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112008 JULIO 08/24/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY