* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 08/24/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 34 38 45 53 60 66 71 77 83 86 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 34 38 45 53 60 66 71 77 83 55 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 42 50 57 66 76 85 59 SHEAR (KTS) 13 7 5 2 6 6 9 7 7 3 7 3 4 SHEAR DIR 73 85 120 46 358 98 31 94 30 123 2 265 349 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 145 147 145 141 141 142 143 145 147 147 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 142 147 147 143 137 135 135 137 138 141 142 148 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -52.7 -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -53.2 -53.7 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 9 11 10 11 11 12 10 12 10 700-500 MB RH 72 72 69 66 69 67 65 61 62 63 62 61 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 8 8 7 6 4 4 5 6 7 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 55 52 56 54 51 43 29 23 23 19 16 24 52 200 MB DIV 26 63 61 51 50 34 22 4 -6 8 10 -15 14 LAND (KM) 168 223 246 240 235 282 244 188 169 251 222 56 -37 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.6 13.1 13.7 14.2 15.1 15.8 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.0 15.7 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 64.6 65.9 67.2 68.5 69.7 71.9 73.9 75.6 77.5 79.4 81.4 83.4 85.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 13 12 11 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 33 44 41 35 52 72 77 65 71 4 7 4 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 27. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 27. 35. 43. 49. 55. 61. 64. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 9. 13. 20. 28. 35. 41. 46. 52. 58. 61. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 08/24/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 08/24/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY