* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL952008 08/24/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 32 39 46 51 56 60 65 72 74 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 32 39 46 51 56 60 65 72 74 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 23 24 25 26 28 30 34 40 45 49 SHEAR (KTS) 13 16 21 21 15 25 20 16 12 11 18 22 26 SHEAR DIR 282 252 240 265 255 224 224 215 226 231 258 246 254 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 141 142 141 141 141 140 141 144 144 145 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 130 129 128 125 121 119 117 119 122 123 123 119 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -54.3 -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 9 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 54 52 54 55 58 60 61 59 59 60 56 51 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 4 3 4 4 6 9 8 9 9 10 13 16 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -18 -8 -12 -6 0 11 24 41 58 57 34 3 200 MB DIV 20 23 26 50 71 44 31 6 18 10 18 31 20 LAND (KM) 1173 1084 1005 958 920 940 958 966 970 1007 1084 1154 1205 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.1 22.6 23.1 23.5 24.4 24.8 24.9 25.1 25.6 26.4 27.3 28.2 LONG(DEG W) 55.0 56.1 57.2 58.0 58.8 59.4 59.6 59.6 59.8 59.9 59.8 60.0 60.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 10 9 7 4 2 1 2 3 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 46 40 47 47 41 39 39 39 39 39 32 26 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 3. 4. 3. 4. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 7. 14. 21. 26. 32. 36. 42. 48. 51. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 2. 4. 7. 14. 21. 26. 31. 35. 40. 47. 49. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952008 INVEST 08/24/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952008 INVEST 08/24/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY