* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 08/24/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 37 41 50 57 64 68 72 76 79 82 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 37 41 50 57 64 68 72 76 79 82 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 37 44 51 58 67 75 84 92 SHEAR (KTS) 10 3 3 6 12 10 13 8 11 4 7 3 3 SHEAR DIR 62 97 21 1 42 12 35 9 51 25 97 22 102 SST (C) 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 147 148 147 144 145 146 145 146 144 144 147 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 149 149 146 141 136 136 135 136 134 136 140 141 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 71 69 68 72 68 67 60 62 61 61 58 59 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 46 50 51 51 48 41 16 31 30 32 27 32 31 200 MB DIV 55 51 45 58 59 27 23 2 25 6 3 0 10 LAND (KM) 246 247 247 300 233 190 127 103 89 162 282 202 45 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.5 14.1 14.8 15.5 16.4 17.0 17.0 16.9 16.5 16.1 15.8 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 66.4 67.7 69.0 70.2 71.3 73.0 74.4 75.7 77.1 78.4 79.8 81.5 83.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 13 11 8 7 6 7 7 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 40 39 41 73 79 84 7 98 17 20 47 8 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 22. 27. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 22. 30. 38. 45. 51. 54. 57. 60. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 8. 12. 16. 25. 32. 39. 43. 47. 51. 54. 57. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 08/24/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 5.9 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 08/24/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY