* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * JULIO EP112008 08/24/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 56 58 60 62 55 50 46 43 43 42 V (KT) LAND 45 49 42 38 35 31 29 28 27 23 20 20 24 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 43 39 35 31 29 28 30 30 30 28 27 SHEAR (KTS) 11 10 3 4 11 13 22 25 26 19 17 8 8 SHEAR DIR 51 83 142 221 243 253 276 272 285 288 310 310 283 SST (C) 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.2 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.4 30.0 30.1 27.3 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 155 150 146 142 143 143 142 145 162 164 135 108 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -52.2 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.8 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 6 5 6 4 5 3 5 3 4 1 2 700-500 MB RH 76 74 73 74 72 63 62 56 52 43 40 36 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 7 7 8 6 7 4 4 3 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 57 42 34 34 18 14 24 9 23 10 26 6 200 MB DIV 12 39 35 1 -3 40 3 11 -27 -25 -10 -8 2 LAND (KM) 24 10 -20 -55 -16 -31 -23 -4 15 57 79 -19 -133 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.6 24.4 25.2 25.9 27.2 28.0 28.7 29.2 30.0 30.6 31.6 32.9 LONG(DEG W) 110.1 110.6 111.1 111.6 112.0 112.5 113.0 113.3 113.5 113.5 113.8 115.0 114.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 8 5 4 3 3 4 5 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 10 CX,CY: -3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 3. 1. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -2. -6. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 9. 5. 2. -1. -2. -3. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 10. 5. 1. -2. -2. -3. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP112008 JULIO 08/24/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 4.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112008 JULIO 08/24/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY