* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 08/25/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 41 49 55 60 65 69 72 76 79 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 41 49 55 60 52 61 64 68 71 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 38 45 51 60 73 79 85 90 SHEAR (KTS) 5 1 5 7 5 15 9 16 7 14 6 7 4 SHEAR DIR 110 115 9 24 32 19 43 14 44 22 95 40 135 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 146 146 146 147 150 150 152 149 149 148 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 149 145 142 140 138 139 138 140 138 140 139 141 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 12 10 12 700-500 MB RH 73 74 74 71 69 64 59 61 54 59 56 59 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 48 47 39 37 20 15 20 14 28 18 22 14 200 MB DIV 53 47 57 55 15 16 -20 -2 -7 -17 -22 -10 -12 LAND (KM) 252 261 311 230 172 100 85 0 -2 107 243 270 169 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.2 14.9 15.6 16.2 17.1 17.7 17.8 17.8 17.5 17.3 17.2 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 67.7 68.9 70.1 71.1 72.1 73.8 75.0 76.3 77.6 79.0 80.4 82.1 83.9 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 12 11 8 7 6 6 7 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 38 42 76 81 83 43 8 18 43 24 27 66 79 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 470 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 22. 29. 35. 42. 47. 50. 53. 56. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 12. 16. 24. 30. 35. 40. 44. 47. 51. 54. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 08/25/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 64.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 6.6 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 08/25/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY