* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * JULIO EP112008 08/25/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 47 48 49 46 42 39 36 37 33 31 V (KT) LAND 40 34 32 31 29 28 30 26 22 20 19 24 26 V (KT) LGE mod 40 34 32 31 29 28 27 29 28 28 26 26 27 SHEAR (KTS) 5 2 4 11 10 19 22 25 17 16 7 10 10 SHEAR DIR 70 197 238 252 258 266 268 281 296 296 316 291 285 SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.5 28.6 28.1 28.7 29.5 30.4 29.0 22.9 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 148 145 142 138 148 142 148 157 167 153 90 66 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.5 -52.1 -52.0 -52.8 -52.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 5 5 5 5 3 5 2 6 1 5 0 4 700-500 MB RH 74 73 74 71 69 63 60 54 49 44 41 38 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 8 6 5 4 4 3 2 3 1 2 850 MB ENV VOR 53 39 29 25 19 26 22 21 14 24 14 24 18 200 MB DIV 37 33 -1 -3 24 9 8 -9 -3 -12 -7 2 18 LAND (KM) 4 -25 -40 -12 -50 -4 0 31 48 51 -17 -123 -229 LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.7 25.4 26.2 26.9 28.3 28.9 29.5 30.0 30.9 31.7 32.9 34.4 LONG(DEG W) 110.9 111.3 111.7 112.2 112.6 113.0 113.4 113.6 113.9 113.9 114.3 115.8 115.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 9 9 7 5 3 3 4 4 7 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 429 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 21. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 0. -4. -8. -10. -10. -12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -9. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -4. -9. -11. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 6. 2. -1. -4. -3. -7. -9. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP112008 JULIO 08/25/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112008 JULIO 08/25/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY