* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 08/25/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 39 44 48 54 59 63 67 69 72 73 76 V (KT) LAND 30 35 39 44 48 52 58 61 66 67 70 72 74 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 43 48 54 60 66 73 80 85 89 SHEAR (KTS) 2 6 5 2 10 13 15 9 9 10 11 8 10 SHEAR DIR 9 23 24 18 338 13 354 27 323 23 341 33 327 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 148 148 154 155 157 157 157 156 154 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 148 144 142 140 142 141 143 145 146 144 143 141 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 65 65 61 58 54 55 56 56 55 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 9 8 7 6 4 5 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 33 26 15 13 -4 -5 0 10 6 7 -1 -5 200 MB DIV 43 44 44 18 4 -3 -15 7 -11 -9 -21 -5 -8 LAND (KM) 321 317 188 86 57 12 45 89 41 30 169 327 332 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 15.3 16.2 16.9 17.5 18.5 18.9 19.0 18.7 18.5 18.3 18.4 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 68.2 69.3 70.4 71.2 72.0 73.4 74.5 75.6 77.0 78.4 79.9 81.4 83.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 12 10 9 7 5 6 7 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 46 74 85 76 80 0 81 2 7 16 20 29 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 17. 22. 26. 29. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 22. 28. 33. 39. 42. 45. 46. 48. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 14. 18. 24. 29. 33. 37. 39. 42. 43. 46. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 08/25/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 72.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 6.6 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 08/25/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY