* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * JULIO EP112008 08/25/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 37 39 38 38 37 36 35 31 28 V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 34 35 37 32 34 33 32 28 29 26 V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 31 33 33 31 28 31 32 34 31 31 27 SHEAR (KTS) 5 9 11 10 20 28 24 23 14 18 9 15 11 SHEAR DIR 205 242 253 245 258 272 270 282 296 304 275 279 239 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.9 29.1 29.4 30.3 30.6 30.5 30.0 29.8 27.0 21.2 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 153 155 158 165 167 167 162 160 133 72 73 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.3 -51.7 -52.2 -52.5 -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 5 6 4 4 3 5 2 4 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 72 74 74 68 63 60 55 53 49 45 40 43 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 5 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 24 15 15 22 18 35 17 28 15 32 10 48 200 MB DIV 31 0 2 20 29 0 7 -10 -20 -10 6 -1 6 LAND (KM) -50 -40 -8 11 32 25 -7 6 81 52 -30 30 -42 LAT (DEG N) 25.2 26.1 26.9 27.7 28.5 29.6 30.0 30.3 30.5 30.9 31.4 32.3 33.6 LONG(DEG W) 111.5 111.8 112.0 112.4 112.7 112.9 112.8 113.0 113.8 114.2 115.1 117.3 117.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 9 7 4 2 2 3 4 7 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 13 CX,CY: -4/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 471 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 17. 23. 28. 31. 31. 27. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -3. -7. -11. -13. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -8. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -4. -7. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP112008 JULIO 08/25/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112008 JULIO 08/25/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY