* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * SEVEN AL072008 08/25/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 39 43 47 53 57 64 65 67 70 72 74 V (KT) LAND 30 35 39 43 47 51 56 62 63 63 67 69 71 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 41 50 57 63 70 81 86 90 93 SHEAR (KTS) 9 8 3 7 14 6 15 4 14 3 4 8 7 SHEAR DIR 29 49 104 312 3 22 13 323 360 181 337 193 232 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 151 153 159 159 157 158 157 158 157 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 145 144 144 144 145 141 137 139 139 139 137 137 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 75 72 69 69 64 58 58 54 58 56 58 54 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 29 18 20 8 -7 -7 1 2 -6 -18 -38 -45 200 MB DIV 48 40 28 10 -6 -43 -26 -10 -9 -8 -10 -19 -5 LAND (KM) 336 234 144 103 66 30 65 30 6 10 61 86 96 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.7 16.3 16.9 17.5 18.8 19.5 19.8 20.0 20.5 21.3 21.8 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 69.6 70.5 71.3 72.1 72.8 73.8 74.2 74.3 74.4 74.6 75.1 75.6 76.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 9 9 6 3 1 2 4 4 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 78 90 86 92 37 43 58 37 18 0 72 89 97 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 20. 26. 33. 36. 40. 44. 46. 47. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 13. 17. 23. 27. 34. 35. 37. 40. 42. 44. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072008 SEVEN 08/25/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 76.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072008 SEVEN 08/25/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY